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In recent years, fresh conflicts have erupted across the globe with alarming regularity, coinciding with a decade of record high temperatures.

While the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East tend to receive the bulk of global attention, there are many other conflicts that are equally severe and protracted. According to analysis from the Peace Research Institute Oslo, 59 conflicts were recorded in 2023, the highest number since the end of the Second World War.

Many people would assume that climate adaptation takes a back seat when confronted with conflict. But new research from the Adaptation Fund provides insights and firsthand experience of successful projects operating within fragile states and conflict-affected countries.

The fund has invested $1.2 billion across 180 projects around the world – and so it’s to be expected that some of these would fall within areas of potential conflict. A number of projects are within countries, such as Mali, where wars have raged for years, while others are in places where sporadic and unpredictable violence can suddenly break out.

Still others are in especially fragile areas, such as the Volta Basin in West Africa, which is highly vulnerable to devastating floods and droughts. Knowing how to quickly respond and adapt is crucial within these different contexts, researchers found.

The study highlights a number of key factors for improving the outcomes of projects in conflict zones: strengthening institutions, ensuring local ownership of finance, allowing for flexibility on climate funding, building strong partnerships and close monitoring are all seen as critical.

Cross-border climate risks can’t be solved in isolation

Climate change is exacerbating instability by weakening institutions, displacing communities and increasing tensions over available food and water. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change drew attention to this in its 2022 climate science report, stating “there is increasing evidence linking increased temperatures and drought to conflict risk in Africa.”

Mikko Ollikainen, head of the Adaptation Fund, commented last year that conflict-affected countries are “among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and their needs for external assistance are high”.

He added that the fund’s research “reinforces the importance of strengthening institutions in fragile settings to deliver climate finance effectively, and building strong partnerships between governments, civil society and the private sector to ensure proper funding”.

Water conservation in Ethiopia

One case study that demonstrates these complexities is a climate-smart agriculture project in Ethiopia. The $10-million initiative took place between 2017 and 2022, and was designed to increase resilience across seven ‘woredas’ (districts), vulnerable to drought. 

These districts included areas both designated as arid and semi-arid, owing to the predominance of drylands throughout the country. This can make farming difficult as crop production is largely dependent on varying levels of rainfall. An estimated 8 million households in the country earn a living through small-scale subsistence farming, and the practice is of critical importance to overall food supplies.

One of the districts involved in the project was Tigray, an area in the northernmost reaches of Ethiopia, and at the time the site of intense fighting between the government and a paramilitary group called the Tigray Defense Forces.

Can climate funders overcome fear to tread in conflict zones?

The outbreak of conflict meant that planned infrastructure development in the region was delayed and staff were unable to assess sites. Therefore, the project focused on strengthening institutional capacity and increasing local awareness and ownership over adaptation activities in other districts.

One of the long-term benefits was the successful engagement of local communities to provide common training on using new water facilities. According to researchers, water stress was reduced in affected communities as an underground source of drinking water was provided and local training given to ensure its maintenance.

Over 15,000 households benefited from access to safe drinking water, and a further 8,500 farmers were trained in irrigation agriculture. In addition, 3,300 hectares of degraded land were restored using soil and water conservation techniques, such as constructing shallow wells, small dams and hillside terraces to prevent water runoff.

The impact of these interventions was to reduce conflict in parts of the country where climate change is fuelling tensions over the availability of freshwater.

Cristina Dengel, the Adaptation Fund’s knowledge management officer, who coordinated the study, said: “The water facilities helped to drastically limit the conflict between crop farmers and livestock herders at the local level. Even if anecdotal, it shows the potential of climate adaptation projects to have a positive impact in reducing conflict and fragility.”

This success has been used as a template for a much larger project funded by Green Climate Fund which could reach ten times as many districts.

Building trust

Working in conflict-affected countries means having a different mindset about what can be achieved. In Ethiopia, the security situation in Tigray meant it wasn’t possible to operate in the region. As such, attention turned to the other districts involved in the project and how to ensure the best possible outcomes – and reduce further conflict – for people on the ground. 

Speaking at a COP29 event on adaptation in conflict areas co-organised by the Adaptation Fund and the Global Environment Facility, Srilata Kammila, head of climate change adaptation at the United Nations Development Programme, said working in fragile states is complex for a host of reasons.

Not only are institutions weaker to implement projects over the long-term, but there is also often discord between communities and the government. “The people in these situations have been affected with lack of trust in the government and other entities coming from outside. Building that trust and engaging communities becomes a critical part and entry point of designing adaptation projects,” said Kammila. 

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Researchers found that in the case of Ethiopia, and others like it, having flexibility to adapt to a rapidly evolving situation is critical, together with community ownership over how projects are designed and implemented. This is easier said than done while in a conflict zone, but it at least provides better odds for success.

Ollikainen told Climate Home he hoped lessons learned in Ethiopia and the other case studies analysed will be applied elsewhere as conflicts continue to put pressure on local populations struggling with worsening climate extremes.

“We know that people need our help and it’s our responsibility to ensure financing is there to support them,“ he said. “As the climate crisis intensifies, we need to be prepared to work in conflict zones and let communities know we aren’t going to abandon them.”

Adam Wentworth is a freelance writer based in Brighton, UK.